Wednesday, December 16, 2015

National Fertilizers Ltd @28.30

1. National Fertilizers Ltd is a 10 rupee face value Fertilizer company. 

2. Year high of National Fertilizers Ltd is 42.80 and year low was 20.10, stock traded at 28.30, Year high/ low ratio is slightly higher then 2 but when a stock is recover more then 40% from year low and if company declare a positive result after the date of year low then year high/low ratio is acceptable till 2.5 and
National fertilizer ltd is a perfect example of this theory, here positive results means increasing sales and profits in comparison of earlier quarter result., If you are new reader of my blog and not familiar with my research terms then please see my research terms at this link :-
3. Promoters of National Fertilizers Ltd hold 89.71 %FII hold nil % and DII hold 5.99%. Promoters holding is sound . NFL is a PSU company so Govt. of India is promoter of this company.
4.National Fertilizers Ltd This stock have a regular dividend history. See past dividends from NFL here:-
EX DatePurpose
15/09/2015Dividend 0.17
29/08/2012Dividend 0.78
29/08/2011Dividend 0.85
30/08/2010Dividend 1.05
28/08/2009Dividend 0.60

5. Base price of National Fertilizers Ltd is 34.58 So Current market is near about 18% below the base price.
Click here to download last 3 year closing price with graph 
6. No any bonus issue right issue and bulk deals is recorded in last 2 year.
7. National Fertilizers Ltd net sale per share of Fy 14-15 is 173.77 net sale per share is very sound  so this stock have chance to become a multi bagger. 
8. Book value of National Fertilizers Ltd is 30.19 CMP is also lower then book value so in book value concept this stock is a value buy. 
9. NFL is a good dividend paying PSU company for long term view and also give a positive breakout over 200 DMA 
10. 200 DMA of National Fertilizers Ltd is 28.16 so National fertilizers ltd also give a positive breakout above 200 DMA and I think traders will also get a position in this stock and long term ivestor may buy this stock till price of 35 after that hold it for decent gains. 
11. This is my second recommendation in NFL, New readers please must read my earlier article about NFL which I publish on 2009 and recommended to buy NFL @36 plus also recommended to shift nagarjuna fertilizers to NFL and after this article my readers get 313% profit in National fertilizer stock and book his profit @149 at 2010. Nagarjuna fertilizer is currently merge with Nagarjuna oil refinary which traded @ 4 only.
Here is the link of this earlier article of 2009:-
11. My recent updates :- Buy SAIL @ 4511. 
Disclaimer:- This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “this research report” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in “this research report”. The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time.The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions. Please read full disclaimer at the bottom of my blog. 
Discloser:- I Mahesh Chander Kaushik author of this research report is an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also registered under SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 ( SEBI Registration Number INH 100000908 ) hereby disclose about my financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest:- 1 Me and my associates or relatives have not hold any share of National Fertilizers Ltd so my personal interest is not included in this stock. 2. Me and my associates or relatives have not any actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company ( National Fertilizers Ltd). 3. Me and my associates or relatives have not any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 4. Me and my associates or relatives have not received any type of compensation from the subject company(National Fertilizers Ltd) in the past twelve months. 5. I am not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company ( National Fertilizers Ltd). 6. I have been not engaged in market making activity for the subject company (National Fertilizers Ltd).

22 comments:

  1. Hello Mahesh ji,

    Can you pls advice on Crompton greaves, I had taken it at 224. Shall I hold it or sell??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I never recommended sell or shift in a stock. I use shopkeeper approach as describe in my book. Crompton Greaves is an Avoid due to reducing promoters holding with 82.70% pledged shares.Bulk deals etc.

      Delete
    2. Sir, can I buy it at any market fall around 28 300 quantity. ? I want to hold it for 2 year's. I am expecting it as a multibagger, I won't sell it at 40 or 50. But only at decent gains. Shall I buy it for long term..?

      What wud be target price and time horizon..?

      Delete
    3. No, I not recommended to invest more then INR 5000 in a single stock and if you get more then 15 % profit in a short time then it is always wise to follow my army style to book profit, read this army style in my book,regards

      Delete
  2. Hi Mahesh ji,

    National Fertilizers . its book value is getting decrease year-on-year. does it make any difference to select the stock?
    One more question:
    why you look bulk deal factor, like whats wrong if there is any bulk deal.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Respected Sandeep ji
    Book value down from 34.09 to 30.19 is due to reducing reserves from 1263.85 cr to 990.42 cr but this company has still 990.42 cr huge reserves.
    In my theory bulk deal is a sign of speculation activity in stock and as my experience ( you may also note it) that when a stock have many bulk deals then stock price is beaten down badly within 2 years in more then 75% 0f bulk deal cases.
    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Replies
    1. Please buy my book name "The Winning theory in Stock Market" from Amazon or Flipkart

      Delete
  5. Replies
    1. Yes,Please buy my book name "The Winning theory in Stock Market" from Amazon or Flipkart

      Delete
  6. Dear Mahesh Ji, can i buy all the stocks recommended by you in the last 3-4 months? Secondly can i invest more than 5000 in a single scrip? Thanks & God Bless.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hello Mahesh ji,

    I have just entered into the stock market and dind your recommendations very much.

    Need to ask one thing that if I can now enter into NFL at 29 ?

    Thanks,
    Mohit

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi, have gone through ur blog & Just want to know whether can I buy all ur recommendation of 2016 at cmp....

    Kekin

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi, can I buy all ur recommendation of 2016 at cmp.....

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi, have gone through ur blog & Just want to know whether can I buy all ur recommendation of 2016 at cmp....

    Kekin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, Check fundamentals of these recommendations again and if any of above recommendation year high/low ratio is above 2 then do not buy at CMP and if recent bulk deal is there then do not buy, and if any stock traded over it recommended price then do not buy at CMP otherwise it is ok to buy at CMP, Please read my book for more details.

      Delete
  11. Dear Mahesh Ji, in comparison of NFL can we buy Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals...Year high / year low <2, Promoter state 37.84 constant for so many years, Net sale per share 133, book value = 112, Base value 78 cmp 70....please check if any calculation wrong...Drawback in NFL is P/e is 52.27 whereas in GSFC P/e is just 6.8

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UPI ji your research is good but I cannot consider P/E or EPS because I think if Net sale is good then one day stock get his position.
      In this case NFL sale is 8524 Cr but GSFC net sale is 5324 cr so I think NFL is a best value buy which availble at 1/2.5 of GSFC price, Regards

      Delete
  12. Hi mahesh sir, can I buy NFL now , one more question ke humne NFL buy kiya or kuch din baad usme block ya bulk deal ho jaaye toh ??????

    ReplyDelete

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disclaimer:-Trading in stock market is very risky. This website is not perfect. This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “maheshkaushik.com” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in “www.maheshkaushik.com”. Subject to pindwara(india) jurisdiction only. The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice.. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, author of this website is not a trend technical analyst.